Skill Forecasting for the Electricity Supply Industry

The industry training organisation for the electricity supply sector (ESITO) conducts annual workforce skills forecasting exercises for their industry. The purpose of this forecasting is to examine projected infrastructure development and workforce demographics in order to predict future workforce requirements.

Companies in the sector are surveyed to gather the necessary forecasting information. The current number of workers is identified in each industry sector – generation, transmission, distribution, and retail. The occupations of the workers are then identified and classified according to training requirements. Also the demographics of the current workforce, particularly its age groups, are estimated and fed into a demographics change model.

The inherent assumption in the forecasting is that the current workforce in the occupational groups is sufficient to meet their work requirements efficiently. Therefore, any changes in workforce numbers will be driven by electrical infrastructure development changing the work required, and by net migration due to age-based attrition.

ESITO undertake the annual skills forecast for a number of reasons. These include:

• the formulation of a strategic training plan
• provision of information for the national skill shortages lists
• trainee forecasting
• provision forecasting
• the calculation of retirement and age attrition
• monitoring changes in technology and its impact on training requirements.

Skills forecasting is an extremely useful tool for the strategic training plan consultation rounds. It also provides a context for individual sectors to understand evolving skill sets and the transportability of skill sets across the sectors. Yearly forecasting also informs a discussion document for ten-to-twenty year workforce planning.

The annual skills forecast undertaken by ESITO is especially important for raising the credibility of the ITO, as the results are particularly relevant and useful for their industry. The forecasting also leads to better informed consultation and a greater understanding of the future landscape for industry training in the electricity supply sector.